TN elections is going to be interesting this time. There are vital fronts - one under AIADMK & the other under DMK. Other parties like Vijayakanth's DMDK, BJP, Karthik's AIFB (is he the leader??) are also in the fray.

TN can be divided into three different parts - Northern Districts, Southern Districts & Western Districts.

Let us analyse the Northern Districts first, as i belong to that region.

It consists of districts like Chennai, Cuddalore, Kanchipuram etc as a part of it. PMK, the vanniyar party, is strong in this belt because of a large number of Vanniyar population (a caste) & this will help the DMK led front. PMK is contesting most of their seats in these districts. DMK is strong on its own in some of the constituencies & will garner more seats in this area. Congress & left parties have small presence in some of the constituencies.

AIADMK, on the other side is strong in very few constituencies & DPI is strong in many constituencies. MDMK has small presence in all the constituencies & this front is expected to garner fewer constituencies.

DMDK, has presence across all the constituencies & is not strong to translate those votes into an assembly seat.

AIFB, doesnt have presence over here. BJP is also not strong to win a seat on its own.

Though the DMK led front is well positioned to win many constituencies, the following factors will hugely affect their chances.

i) AIADMK government has done lot of work during Tsunami, Floods which have affected these districts hugely. Apart from this, CASH relief by the government has directly made an impact on the voters.

ii) Even though DMK is considered to be strong in chennai (accounting for 14 constituencies), AIADMK government's work has been really appreciated & they are growing strong day by day.

iii) Northern districts is well known to be a place where Vanniyars & Scheduled caste people fight each other regularly. But during these five years, very few incidences have taken place.

iv) & finally the Free bicycle scheme to the school going students have really made an impact in these districts.

My guess is DMK has a slight edge over AIADMK in these northern districts.